Scottish independence & the formula for change
24th March 2014
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Although the polls showing the "Noes" still have it by a 10% margin the gap is narrowing.

Now as a Business Coach we are advised not to get involved with politics - but I thought it would interesting to apply the formula for change to the two campaigns and see if any conclusions could be drawn.

So,  let's take Wee Eck and the SNP first.  There is no question that Salmond is able to paint a picture of Scotland being disadvantaged by the Westminster elite.  Anyone who dares to criticise his point of view is immediately branded with terms such as bluster, bullying.  For Scots living in Scotland being told what they can and can not do by "English toffs" in Westminster is deeply dissatisfying.  

Even issues such as the currency union and EU membership can be seen in terms of depriving Scotland of what is rightly theirs already.  Why should seceding from the union with England mean that Scotland is no longer part of the EU?  


So, given all of this and we are not talking about whether you agree with the Salmond view but whether he can create dissatisfaction around these situations, it is easy to see that Salmond can create a high score - 7 or even 8 out of 10.

What about vision then?  Again, whatever you may think of Salmond's policies he is generally acknowledge as being a canny operator.  Not least because he is able to touch a chord in the emotions of his supporters.  He has a vision of Scotland as an independent state.  We may see lots of pitfalls and difficulties but even most of the "Noes" concluded that Scotland could be an independent state.  You would have to give him an 8 out of 10.

The fist steps are a given.  The referendum is taking place.

We then have a score of (D7 x V8) plus First Steps 10 has to be greater than Resistance. (R can be assessed as 50% of the voters)

How do the Noes compare?  At present, they can argue they have done a reasonable job of criticising Salmond's ideas over independence.  They have raised the spectre of the currency union, membership of the EU and a possible exodus of large businesses such as Lloyds, RBS and Standard Life.  

But there just seems to be something lacking in the overall conviction.  You would not score them more than a 6 in terms of creating dissatisfaction.  And then what about vision?  As yet, this seems almost absent.  What does "Better Together" stand for?  More rule from a Tory elite in Westminster?  Hardly appealing to a Scot.  Yes, there are some policies now coming forward about giving Holyrood extra powers but as yet they have not energised voters.  A 4 out of 10 then.

The score then is (D6 x V4) plus first steps has to be greater than Resistance to change. (i.e. 50% of the voters) 

So, with this formula you can see that unless the Noes ramp up their activities and their ideas about why Scotland should remain part of the Union, the referendum is likely to be "awfa close".


About the Author

Hamish R

Member since: 10th September 2009

A Business Coach with ActionCOACH, I empower business owners to build commercial profitable enterprises that work without them.

25 years of experience in marketing and business development roles across...

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